// Market Intelligence

Bitcoin Market Dashboard.

A daily view of Bitcoin market performance, on-chain conditions, valuation, and network activity.

Explore daily Bitcoin market data and the models behind the analysis. View the source data.

Latest data
Oct 5, 2026
Refresh cadence
Daily

Bitcoin Snapshot

Headline metrics — market, on-chain, and sentiment.

Market Data

Bitcoin PriceBTC daily close in USD.
$86,018

▲ 8.1% vs 30d ago

Bitcoin Market CapBitcoin market capitalization in USD.
$1.73T

▲ 8.2% vs 30d ago

Sats Per DollarSatoshis one US dollar buys.
1,163

▼ -7.5% vs 30d ago

On-chain Data

Bitcoin SupplyCirculating Bitcoin supply.
20,093,832

▲ 0.07% vs 30d ago

Bitcoin Miner RevenueMiner revenue for the report day, USD.
$47.49M

▲ 28.4% vs 30d ago

Bitcoin Transaction VolumeOn-chain transfer volume for the report day, USD.
$105.48B

▲ 94.9% vs 30d ago

Investor Sentiment

Supply in ProfitShare of bitcoin whose current price exceeds its last-moved price.
77.5%
Fear & GreedNUPL zone of the trailing seven-day average; derived from holder unrealized profits and losses.
Optimism / Anxiety
Bitcoin ValuationBitcoin price divided by fitted power-law fair value.
Below Fair Value

Bitcoin Price

Price vs on-chain valuation models and moving averages.

Secret Satoshis 2026 Price Outlook

Bear Case$70,000
Base Case$120,000
Bull Case$160,000

Simple moving averages · 3-month = 90 daily closes · 1-year = 364 daily closes · 200-week = 1,400 daily closes. Annual cases are maintained outlook levels.

Performance

Compare Bitcoin and other assets’ returns across the same periods.

Stock Market Index Performance

AssetPrice7 Day ReturnMTD ReturnYTD Return90 Day Return
Bitcoin - [BTC]$86,0183.29% 3.21% -1.46% 35.44%
Nasdaq-100 ETF - [QQQ]$7562.67% 2.22% 23.52% 6.70%
S&P 500 Index ETF - [SPY]$7751.20% 1.60% 14.51% 3.88%
Russell 2000 Small-Cap ETF - [IWM]$2831.20% 1.98% 15.90% -4.08%
International Stock ETF - [VXUS]$860.12% 1.05% 14.64% 1.60%

Sector Performance

AssetPrice7 Day ReturnMTD ReturnYTD Return90 Day Return
Bitcoin - [BTC]$86,0183.29% 3.21% -1.46% 35.44%
Technology Sector ETF - [XLK]$2013.29% 2.65% 40.07% 12.27%
Energy Sector ETF - [XLE]$632.17% 3.17% 44.73% 16.81%
Financials Sector ETF - [XLF]$54-0.57% 0.90% -0.42% -3.53%
Real Estate Sector ETF - [XLRE]$41-1.64% -0.59% 3.22% -8.64%

Macro Asset Class Performance

AssetPrice7 Day ReturnMTD ReturnYTD Return90 Day Return
Bitcoin - [BTC]$86,0183.29% 3.21% -1.46% 35.44%
US Dollar Index - [DXY]$1020.96% 0.71% 3.96% 1.02%
Gold ETF - [GLD]$3800.43% -0.34% -4.23% 0.55%
Aggregate Bond ETF - [AGG]$94-0.20% -0.08% -2.86% -3.14%
S&P GSCI Commodity Index - [SPGSCI]$729-0.53% -0.26% 32.82% 15.38%

Bitcoin Industry Performance

AssetPrice7 Day ReturnMTD ReturnYTD Return90 Day Return
Bitcoin - [BTC]$86,0183.29% 3.21% -1.46% 35.44%
MicroStrategy - [MSTR]$1644.64% 7.41% 8.21% 68.89%
Block - [XYZ]$763.98% 3.67% 17.11% -1.71%
Coinbase - [COIN]$188-1.86% 0.97% -16.77% 15.11%
Bitcoin Miners ETF - [WGMI]$44-4.13% -1.29% 15.89% -15.73%

Correlation

Return correlations across Bitcoin and major markets.

90-Day Correlation Matrix

90-day Pearson return correlations for Bitcoin and 16 assets, grouped on both axes. Each pair appears once in the lower triangle.
Asset groupAssetBitcoinBroad equity marketsSectorsMacroBitcoin industry
BTCSPYQQQIWMVXUSXLKXLFXLEXLREDXYGLDAGGGSCIMSTRXYZCOINWGMI
BitcoinBitcoin[BTC]1.00
Broad equity marketsS&P 500[SPY]0.351.00
Nasdaq-100[QQQ]0.370.901.00
Russell 2000[IWM]0.310.800.751.00
International Stocks[VXUS]0.390.810.840.781.00
SectorsTechnology[XLK]0.300.780.940.660.791.00
Financials[XLF]0.160.550.240.430.300.101.00
Energy[XLE]-0.30-0.33-0.31-0.36-0.33-0.22-0.151.00
Real Estate[XLRE]0.130.22-0.010.250.16-0.120.43-0.231.00
MacroUS Dollar Index[DXY]-0.33-0.30-0.25-0.29-0.47-0.22-0.110.05-0.141.00
Gold[GLD]0.500.370.370.420.550.360.18-0.180.08-0.511.00
Aggregate Bond[AGG]0.270.540.430.610.550.350.36-0.410.43-0.370.441.00
S&P Commodity Index[GSCI]-0.14-0.57-0.45-0.51-0.44-0.31-0.460.67-0.370.03-0.07-0.541.00
Bitcoin industryMicroStrategy[MSTR]0.840.450.470.380.450.420.22-0.320.11-0.320.510.34-0.241.00
Block[XYZ]0.300.510.380.590.370.240.56-0.300.30-0.210.280.47-0.400.371.00
Coinbase[COIN]0.770.380.400.410.400.350.22-0.300.12-0.270.440.29-0.200.850.461.00
Bitcoin Miners[WGMI]0.310.440.600.460.600.67-0.02-0.20-0.17-0.260.320.17-0.130.410.050.351.00
−1 Opposite0 Uncorrelated+1 Together

Pearson return correlations over 90 calendar days, using shared observation dates. Each pair appears once; — indicates insufficient data. DXY = DX-Y.NYB · GSCI = ^SPGSCI.

Monthly Bitcoin Price Return Heatmap

Monthly returns by year, measured from the previous period’s close.

Statistical Reference

PeriodJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYearly
Average4.6%9.7%11.6%11.1%8.8%-0.1%10.3%3.0%-1.0%17.8%39.5%4.4%547%
Median0.7%10.5%-1.8%7.9%3.2%1.5%8.5%-6.5%-1.0%13.4%10.1%-3.4%107%
4 Year Avg10.0%3.0%9.6%3.6%3.1%-3.4%3.7%-0.4%5.5%10.3%3.2%0.4%51%

Historical Returns by Year

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYearly
2026 (YTD)-10.1%-14.8%2.0%11.5%-3.0%-21.0%8.0%24.7%6.1%3.2%——-1%
20259.5%-17.7%-2.2%14.7%11.0%2.3%8.4%-6.5%4.7%-3.5%-17.1%-4.0%-7%
20240.7%44.1%15.5%-14.8%11.7%-7.0%3.0%-8.9%7.6%10.8%37.6%-3.3%121%
202339.7%0.3%23.0%3.1%-7.5%12.2%-4.4%-10.9%3.6%28.6%8.6%12.4%156%
2022-16.9%12.2%5.9%-17.5%-15.7%-40.2%22.5%-14.1%-3.0%5.2%-16.1%-3.5%-64%
202114.0%37.0%29.9%-3.0%-35.0%-6.4%20.2%12.7%-7.1%40.7%-6.6%-19.4%60%
202030.4%-7.9%-25.2%35.1%8.5%-3.4%24.2%2.8%-7.8%28.5%41.4%48.7%305%
2019-7.4%11.0%7.9%27.9%62.2%28.7%-8.6%-4.1%-14.2%10.9%-17.4%-5.0%93%
2018-28.4%5.3%-34.1%33.1%-18.9%-15.2%21.1%-8.8%-5.7%-4.5%-36.9%-6.9%-73%
2017-0.8%24.4%-10.0%25.6%70.5%8.0%15.1%65.8%-8.7%47.8%54.1%41.9%1,347%
2016-12.2%15.1%-4.4%7.9%17.4%26.6%-5.7%-9.5%6.0%15.8%5.9%30.0%124%
2015-28.9%10.5%-3.2%-2.9%-3.2%14.6%8.5%-19.5%3.3%31.2%20.8%14.7%34%
20149.7%-31.8%-16.9%-1.4%39.6%1.5%-8.5%-17.8%-18.4%-13.4%11.6%-14.9%-56%
201354.5%63.8%186.9%44.8%-8.1%-30.0%9.3%30.3%-1.0%60.8%454.1%-34.9%5,428%
201215.7%-5.8%-1.8%2.0%3.2%27.5%41.0%9.5%20.3%-10.1%13.2%6.5%189%

Statistics omit incomplete periods. The four-year average uses the four most recent completed observations for each column.

Seasonal Returns

Compare this month’s and this year’s price paths with historical years.

Bitcoin October MTD Returns Comparison

Bitcoin 2026 YTD Returns Comparison

Paths start at the current period’s prior close. Average and Median exclude 2017 and the current year; February 29 is removed from YTD alignment. These comparisons are not forecasts.

Relative Valuation

Bitcoin’s hypothetical price if its market cap matched each reference asset. These are comparison scenarios, not forecasts.

AssetMarket Cap (USD)Hypothetical BTC Price (USD)Change from Current BTC Price (%)BTC / Asset Market Cap (%)
Total Gold Market$25.36T$1,261,9041,367%
NVIDIA$5.77T$287,089234%
US M0$5.73T$285,162232%
Apple$4.86T$241,779181%
Amazon$2.71T$134,95157%
TSMC$2.52T$125,39146%
SpaceX$2.26T$112,23730%
Meta$1.89T$94,0589%
Total Silver Market$1.88T$93,6039%
Broadcom$1.73T$86,1200%
Bitcoin$1.73T$86,0180% —
Saudi Aramco$1.69T$84,127-2%
Tesla$1.50T$74,441-13%
Samsung Electronics$1.33T$66,291-23%
Micron$1.20T$59,801-30%
UK M0$1.09T$54,246-37%
Berkshire Hathaway Class B$1.08T$53,722-38%
Eli Lilly$1.02T$50,730-41%
JPMorgan$0.88T$43,970-49%
Visa$0.69T$34,542-60%
Switzerland M0$0.58T$28,865-66%

Network Fundamentals

Network health, security & on-chain economics.

CategoryMetricCurrent Value7 Days Ago7d Change52W Low52W High
Network EconomicsBitcoin Supply20,093,83220,090,6140.02% 19,930,89520,093,832
% Supply Issued95.68%95.67%0.02% 94.91%95.68%
Bitcoin Mined Per Day5505166.67% 306616
Annual Inflation Rate0.82%0.82%0.06% 0.82%0.85%
Velocity13.4813.93-3.25% 9.5520.71
Network PerformanceTotal Address Count57,067,89357,001,1670.12% 54,331,13357,067,893
Address Count > $1039,012,30038,957,5910.14% 37,479,04939,186,262
Active Addresses6,0886,780-10.21% 4,30010,240
Supply Held 1+ Year %63.31%63.28%0.04% 58.37%63.36%
Transaction Count899,894780,09515.36% 289,144899,894
Transaction Volume$105,480,175,421$79,540,490,83332.61% $27,382,450,822$136,693,513,790
Transaction Fee USD$233,331$285,661-18.32% $108,206$577,017
Network SecurityHash Rate1,161.13 EH/s1,088.90 EH/s6.63% 732.41 EH/s1,312.79 EH/s
Network Difficulty132.72T132.76T-0.03% 124.93T155.97T
Miner Revenue$47,493,766$43,271,0859.76% $22,731,097$62,255,509
Fee % Of Reward0.49%0.66%-25.50% 0.30%1.39%
Network ValuationMarket Cap$1,728,429,665,802$1,673,151,928,2173.30% $1,170,266,627,064$2,484,832,702,666
Bitcoin Price$86,018$83,2803.29% $58,367$124,672
Realized Price$53,734$53,5530.34% $52,631$56,413
Thermocap Price$4,916$4,9030.26% $4,305$4,916

Bitcoin ROI by Time Frame

Returns by holding period.

PeriodROIStart Price
1 Day-0.3% $86,246
3 Day2.0% $84,334
7 Day3.3% $83,280
30 Day8.1% $79,583
90 Day35.4% $63,509
1 Year-30.2% $123,155
2 Year39.0% $61,864
4 Year326.8% $20,153
5 Year67.5% $51,347
10 Year14,001.5% $610